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Postal Savings Bank officially launches subscription on the 28th, introduces "green shoes" mechanism to stabilize stock prices

China Securities Journal (Reporter Ouyang Jianhuan) China Post Savings Bank (hereinafter referred to as "Post Savings Bank") issued the "IPO Public Announcement" on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on the 27th. The announcement shows that on November 28, the Postal Savings Bank will officially launch the subscription, and the offline issuance and the online subscription will be carried out simultaneously. The stock is referred to as "Post Bank" and the stock code is "601658", which is also used for offline purchases. This issuance of online subscription is referred to as "Post Store Subscription" and the subscription code is "780658". The final placement results will be announced in an announcement on December 2.

According to the announcement, according to the preliminary inquiry results, the Postal Savings Bank and the joint lead underwriters comprehensively considered the issuer's fundamentals, the valuation level of comparable companies, the industry in which they are located, the market situation, the need for raised funds, and the risk of underwriting. The issue price is RMB 5.50 per share, and no cumulative bidding inquiry will be made for offline issuance.

Introducing the "green shoes" mechanism

It is understood that the size of the issuance is approximately 5.172 billion shares, accounting for approximately 6.00% of the total share capital after the issuance (before the exercise of the over-allotment option), all of which are public issuance of new shares and no transfer of old shares. Postal Savings Bank grants the joint lead underwriter an over-allocation option (or "green shoes") that does not exceed 15% of the initial issuance. If the "green shoes" are exercised in full, the total number of shares issued will be expanded to approximately 5.948 billion shares , Accounting for approximately 6.84% of the total share capital after issuance (after the full exercise of the over-allotment option).

As an effective support method for market price stability, the Bank of China Post introduced a “green shoe” mechanism in this issuance, which means that within 30 days after the listing of the new shares in the market stabilization period, if the stock price is lower than the issue price due to market fluctuations, underwriting Merchants will buy stocks from the market and stabilize secondary market prices, which are not available in the bank shares recently issued.

It is understood that this is also the first IPO in nearly a decade and the fourth time in history to introduce a "green shoe" IPO. Zhongtai Securities stated that the Post Bank introduced the "green shoe" mechanism. Within 30 days after the issuance of new shares, if the stock price fell below the issue price, there would be 4.3 billion yuan of "green shoe" funds on the market. In the past 10 years, only 3 IPOs have set up "green shoes": Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (2006), Agricultural Bank of China (2010) and China Everbright Bank (2010), all of which were fully implemented within 30 days of listing, "All stocks performed well during the exercise period, and the average stock price rose by more than 10%.

Analysts from securities firms said that, on the whole, the "green shoes" system has a positive effect on reasonable pricing and stable market outlook. To a certain extent, it protects the interests of investors. For investors, the "green shoes" help reduce the initial fluctuations of the stock after listing, and help the stock price to transition smoothly from the primary market to the secondary market, reducing investors' market risk in the short term; in addition, after the stock is listed In the initial process of the underwriters buying stocks in the market, the stock price expectations were stabilized and the liquidity of the stocks was also increased.

Arrange strategic placement to escort market performance

Different from other bank stock issuance schemes, this post issuance also arranged strategic placement to escort the performance of the market.

Zhongtai Securities analysis said, "The number of strategic placements of Postal Savings Bank accounts for about 40% of the total issued shares. Powerful investors play the role of ballast stone and are an important support for the stable performance of the market outlook.In addition, the post-office issue of the Postal Savings Bank also has a lock-up period. 70% of the offline placement shares have a lock-up period of 6. After exercising the "green shoes", nearly 45% of the total issuance has been locked in installments (strategic placement investors (34.8% of the total issuance) have been locked for one year, and 70% of the offline investors have been allocated (accounting for 9.9% of the total issuance) (locked for 6 months), can effectively reduce the selling pressure brought by circulation, and effectively calm market fluctuations. "

In addition, according to the PBC's prospectus, in order to stabilize the stock price after listing and protect the interests of small and medium shareholders, PBC's controlling shareholders, PBC, directors, and executives have all made commitments to stabilize the stock price.

Institutions bullish on valuation enhancement

The Bank of China Post Bank's A-share market will be launched soon, and market institutions are generally optimistic about the investment value and valuation of the bank.

Guotai Junan believes that with the capital replenishment in place, there is still a room for rapid increase in the deposit and loan ratio and loan ratio indicators of the Postal Savings Bank, which will make the bank's return on assets in the period of lower interest rates relatively stable.

According to public data, the total compound annual growth rate of PBC's loans over the past three years is 19.19%, which is significantly ahead of the average of 8.78% of the five major banks, and has excellent growth. As of the end of June 2019, the deposit-loan ratio of the Postal Savings Bank was only 51.66%, which was significantly lower than the average of 77% of the five major banks. There is a lot of room for performance improvement in the future loan business growth.

In addition, the postal dividend ratio of the Postal Savings Bank has increased year by year in recent years, reaching 30% in 2018. Analysts believe that with the further consolidation of capital, the growth potential of the Postal Savings Bank will be further released, and it will continue to maintain a comparable and competitive dividend level with its peers.

Shen Wanhongyuan said, "The Postal Savings Bank has a strong performance growth rate, the first echelon's dividend level, and healthy asset quality.It strategically insists on being a distinctive retail bank, which is a very scarce quality target among domestic listed banks. . Outstanding fundamentals and differentiated retail positioning, we maintain the PBC's buy rating, and we expect net profit growth attributable to mothers to grow 16.2% / 15.0% / 15.0% in 2019-21 (maintain profit forecast). "

Guosheng Securities analysis said, "The Postal Savings Bank has a solid network of branches, deposits, and customer base, and has a good 'growth' among state-owned banks. Looking ahead, using a unique postal banking cooperation system, its asset business and intermediate business space Larger. After the completion of this A-share IPO, it can effectively supplement the core tier 1 capital of PBC, increase the capital adequacy ratio, open up space for future business expansion, and maintain a 'buy' rating. "

According to the disclosure of the A-share prospectus issued by the Postal Savings Bank for the full-year performance forecast, it is estimated that the operating income in 2019 will be 276.655 billion to 279.265 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.00% to 7.00%. Profit was 58.180 billion yuan to 59.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 16.55% to 18.64%.


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