Demand release is less than expected, property market adjustment is expected to continue
- Published: October 11, 2019
- Source: China Securities Journal
This year's "Golden Nine" is inadequate, and whether the property market can reproduce the "Silver Ten" attracts attention. However, the volume of the National Day Golden Week remained low this year, and the "Silver Ten" started poorly. Experts predict that the adjustment of the property market in the fourth quarter is expected to expand slightly under the state of supply and demand, and the policy level may remain tightly controlled without easing, and the pressure on housing enterprise funds will be further highlighted in the fourth quarter.
Wait and see
According to the latest monitoring data from the Zhuge Finding Data Research Center, in the National Day Golden Week in 2019, the sales area of new homes in key 10 cities was 772,200 square meters, a decrease of 8.1% compared with the same period in 2018.
Guo Shiying, an analyst at the Zhuge Finding Data Research Center, pointed out that, on the one hand, under the regulatory atmosphere of "no housing and speculation," buyers have a wait-and-see mood. On the other hand, as the golden age of the property market fades, attention to the property market has decreased.
Huang Yu, executive deputy dean of the China Index Academy (referred to as the “China Index Academy”), said that during the Golden Week this year, the overall domestic real estate market demand was less than expected. In the first-tier cities, the transaction area of commercial housing was adjusted by a large margin. The sales scale of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou all declined year-on-year. Shenzhen benefited from the improvement in supply. In addition, due to the lower base in the same period last year, the transaction scale increased significantly year-on-year.
Second-tier cities continue to show a pattern of internal differentiation. Huang Yu introduced that Wuhan, Ningbo, Suzhou, Nanning and other places have released relatively fast activity due to earlier demand, and their current activity has declined. The market has undergone periodic adjustments. After the market scale in Wenzhou, Fuzhou and other places has undergone continuous deep adjustments, with the recent concentrated listing of high-quality projects, the demand for house purchases is high, and the scale of transactions has rebounded. Among the third- and fourth-tier cities, Yangzhou was affected by the low base in the same period last year, with a significant year-on-year increase, but Huizhou, Shaoguan, and Dongguan still have downward pressure.
Promotion has not increased
During the "11th" holiday, a reporter from China Securities News visited a number of real estate properties in Shanghai and found that there were fewer cases of vigorous price reductions and promotions. A chain agent in Shanghai told reporters that, except for the "11th" day, although there were 4-5 real estates during the long holiday period, they obviously felt that the transaction was not as strong as in previous years.
Liu Renjian, deputy general manager of the Land Cloud Division of the Middle Fingers Institute, said that although many companies have taken actions to reduce prices, overall, the promotion is not strong. "In fact, excessive promotions during the Golden Week may not form a promotion, but may increase the market's wait-and-see atmosphere."
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, said that the effectiveness of housing sales promotion remains to be seen, and some buyers are still on the sidelines. The main reason for the insufficient effect of the price reduction promotion is that the down payment policy for housing loans and the sluggish second-hand housing transactions affect the demand for housing exchanges, and the hesitation of buying a house during the adjustment of the bank loan interest rate policy will also occur.
Property market continues to adjust
The Middle Finger Institute believes that the real estate market adjustment in the fourth quarter will be slightly expanded under the state of supply and demand. Taking into account the recent positive marketing momentum of housing companies, the rise in housing prices in the fourth quarter may further decline.
Guo Shiying said that since July, the supervisory authorities have repeatedly issued policies related to real estate finance, and the relevant departments' supervision of the real estate market has not weakened and is still in a state of strict regulation. The short-term impact of the mortgage loan interest rate "changing anchor" also shows that real estate regulation and control is still mainly focused on stability at this stage. It is expected that the policy will not be loosened in the fourth quarter, especially in terms of financial supervision, and will continue to prevent funds from flowing into the real estate market in violation of regulations. Affected by the long-term market regulation, buyers have a wait-and-see mood, and their enthusiasm for entering the market is low, and the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses has declined steadily.
The Middle Finger Institute believes that in the fourth quarter, the pressure on housing enterprises will become more prominent, which will affect the enthusiasm of housing companies for investment.